The stock market under President Trump remains resilient in 2026, even as geopolitical conflict, trade disputes and changing policy expectations have created sharp swings. A U.S. and Iran ceasefire agreement helped lift the to new record highs as investors anticipated lower energy costs and broader market participation. News reports of a one-page framework to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations, open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict pushed markets higher again. Chart depicts S&P 500 price levels 12/31/2024 - 5/6/2026 Sources: U.S. Bank Asset Management Group Research, Bloomberg, May 6, 2026. Investors should not treat the market as a simple political scorecard. Since the 2024 presidential election, the S&P 500’s total return climbed more than 25% as of April 20, 2026, despite meaningful volatility along the way. “Investors have overcome concerns about geopolitical conflict and trade announcements and focused on fundamental strength, namely corporate earnings growth,” says Bill Merz, head of capital markets research for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. Earnings growth supports the stock market outlook under President Trump The rally has also spread beyond the market’s largest companies. Smaller-company stocks have risen more than 66% from last April’s lows, which suggests confidence has broadened instead of depending on a narrow group of large stocks. Broader participation often gives investors more confidence that a rally has a stronger foundation. remain the clearest support for the stock market under President Trump. S&P 500 companies increased fourth-quarter 2025 revenue by 9.2% and earnings by 13.4%, while first-quarter results are exceeding analyst expectations of 9.6% revenue growth and 13.0% earnings growth. Those fundamentals help explain why investors have continued to buy stocks despite higher oil prices, tariff uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risk. Stock prices still need real business support. “The equity market is still trending higher. That goes back to healthy fundamentals,” says Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. “Sustained earnings growth is crucial for supporting these valuations.” Sandven says this serves as a reminder that companies need to keep growing profits because stock prices relative to earnings remain somewhat above long-term averages, leaving less room for disappointing earnings results. Consumer spending keeps the market expansion on track demand continues to give the stock market under President Trump an important base of support. U.S. consumer spending rose 5.7% year over year through March, incomes rose 3.7%, and economists still expect about 2.2% real economic growth in 2026, comparable to 2025’s growth rate. Those figures show that households continue to spend even as higher energy prices and policy uncertainty create pressure. High frequency data also point to resilient spending trends. Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales and Fiserv’s point-of-sales data validate continued strong spending growth, with recent readings in the 6-8% growth range. Investors continue to watch those measures because consumer activity drives a large share of economic growth and supports corporate revenue across many industries. Tax relief and lower interest rates have also helped support growth. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act () lowered corporate and individual taxes, and federal tax refunds were running approximately $47 billion higher than in 2025 through April 24. Earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts also helped support borrowing and spending, giving investors another reason to maintain a constructive market view. Chart depicts federal tax refunds per year for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Sources: U.S. Bank Asset Management Group Research, Bloomberg; January 1, 2024-May 5, 2026. How Iran and oil prices affect stocks under President Trump Iran and oil prices now drive many of the market’s biggest short-term swings. About one-fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the , so any disruption can quickly raise fuel costs, increase , and weigh on growth expectations. Despite the ceasefire and President Trump’s announced Project Freedom to guide certain ships through the Strait, traffic remains at a virtual standstill, keeping energy prices at the center of the market outlook. “The key market question is not whether conflict creates headlines. It is whether higher energy prices last long enough to slow growth, lift inflation, and change the path for interest rates.” - Tom Hainlin, senior national investment strategist for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group Inflation data already show the pressure from higher energy prices. The Producer Price Index rose 0.5% in March and 4% from a year earlier, while energy prices rose 8.5% in the month and gasoline prices jumped 15.7%. , framed the issue directly: “The key market question is not whether conflict creates headlines,” says Tom Hainlin, senior national investment strategist for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. “It is whether higher energy prices last long enough to slow growth, lift inflation, and change the path for interest rates.” Higher inflation can also change how investors value stocks. If inflation rises enough to push interest rates higher, investors may pay less today for earnings they expect companies to generate in future years. That relationship among profits, inflation and interest rates will continue to shape stock market performance throughout 2026. Tariffs, tax cuts, and Fed policy shape market performance Tariffs still deserve attention, even though they no longer dominate investor focus the way they did earlier in the cycle. The Supreme Court voided most 2025 tariffs imposed under one legal authority, and the administration later announced a temporary 10% global tariff while it explored other options. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, tariffs could return to prior levels by early July, keeping trade policy on investors’ watch list. Investors now appear more focused on lasting effects than on headline shock alone. The key question is whether tariffs materially change growth, inflation, and company profits, not whether they trigger another short-lived burst of market volatility. That shift helps explain why stocks advanced through legal changes, policy adjustments, and continued trade uncertainty. Fiscal and monetary policy continue to support the economy as well. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act lowered both corporate and individual taxes, and estimates point to a net $127 billion boost for consumers. Recent price pressures have led markets to expect no additional interest rate easing in 2026 after the cut its three times in late 2025. Stock market outlook under President Trump: What investors should do now The 2026 outlook still looks constructive, but it also includes real risks. Consumer spending, business investment, earnings growth, tax relief, and easier monetary policy continue to support stocks. High stock prices, tariffs, inflation, geopolitical tension, and pockets of could challenge confidence, while in November 2026 may add more short-term volatility. Investors can respond more effectively with discipline than prediction. A practical approach starts with reviewing whether your , time horizon, and comfort with market swings. Investors may also want to rebalance their portfolios if allocations have drifted and invest extra cash gradually instead of all at once. That approach keeps attention on long-term plan alignment rather than on each new headline about the stock market under the Trump administration. Market volatility can create discomfort, but it can also create opportunities for investors who have a clear plan and a diversified portfolio. A thoughtful review with your can help investors separate temporary market noise from developments that truly change the long-term outlook.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to record closing highs on May 26, 2026, driven by an explosion in semiconductor stocks and renewed AI optimism. The Nasdaq climbed 1.19% to 26,656.18, while the S&P 500 gained 0.61%, marking successive records that underscore a structural shift in tech earnings and memory chip demand. Micron Technology emerged as the day’s star performer, rocketing 18% higher in morning trading and approaching $1 trillion market capitalization, fueling broader strength in the semiconductor index. Why Semiconductor Stocks Dominated May Market Gains Memory chip demand has reached historical highs as enterprise customers lock in multiyear supply agreements for AI model training and deployment. According to industry analysis, HBM (high-bandwidth memory) chip demand could grow at an 82% annual rate through 2027, creating a supply crunch that benefits established memory manufacturers. Micron Technology has positioned itself at the center of this transition, with over 313% stock gains in the past year alone, vastly outpacing broader market indices. The tailwind extends across the entire semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has climbed 60% in just six weeks, with analyst upgrades from firms like UBS and Evercore signaling confidence in sustained demand. Unlike the cyclical chip rallies of previous decades, this cycle appears structurally tied to AI infrastructure buildouts that will persist for years, not quarters. Nasdaq’s 1.19% Gain Reflects Broader Tech Strength Tuesday’s Nasdaq surge wasn’t limited to memory stocks. The entire technology sector benefited from relief on two fronts: valuation stabilization and Federal Reserve pivot signals. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a 70% probability of at least one rate increase by year-end 2026, but this has paradoxically boosted tech sentiment by confirming that inflation remains contained enough to avoid the aggressive tightening feared weeks ago. Market breadth improved notably. Gainers outnumbered decliners across major exchanges, with large-cap technology names leading alongside semiconductor specialists. This suggests institutional confidence extends beyond speculative plays into core holdings, a healthier market structure than momentum-driven rallies. Market Performance Comparison: May 26, 2026 Stock indices across the U.S. market posted strong gains, with semiconductor exposure being the primary performance driver. The data below reflects the divergence between technology-forward and commodity-sensitive sectors: What This Record-Breaking Rally Means for Your Portfolio Market implications extend beyond semiconductor strength. The S&P 500’s approach to fresh all-time highs, combined with Nasdaq momentum, signals that the early 2026 tech reset has given way to a genuine bull market cycle driven by earnings improvement, not just sentiment. For investors, this marks a transition: valuations are stabilizing at higher absolute levels because underlying business fundamentals are modernizing rapidly. The Fed rate landscape shift is opening doors for rate-sensitive sectors, though technology and semiconductors remain the primary beneficiaries. Analyst price targets rising for memory chipmakers indicate Wall Street confidence extends well into mid-2027.

The Indian stock market will remain shut on May 28 as both the National Stock Exchange of India and BSE Limited observe a trading holiday on account of Bakri Id. Earlier this month, exchanges were also closed on May 1 for Maharashtra Day. A total of 16 stock market holidays have been scheduled for 2026, out of which eight have already passed. After the Bakri Id holiday, trading will remain suspended on seven more occasions over the remaining nine months of the year. Following today’s closure, the next market holiday will fall on Friday, June 26, for Muharram. In the second half of the year, markets will also remain closed on September 14 for Ganesh Chaturthi, October 2 for Gandhi Jayanti, October 20 for Dussehra, November 10 for Diwali Balipratipada, November 24 for Guru Nanak Jayanti and December 25 for Christmas, which will be the final market holiday of 2026. Meanwhile, Multi Commodity Exchange of India will remain closed during the morning session on May 28 but will resume trading in the evening session. According to MCX’s annual trading calendar, the exchange has 16 trading holidays in 2026, with either partial or full-day closures. The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited will remain shut for both trading sessions on the same day. In 2026, four key holidays fall on weekends and therefore will not lead to additional market closures. These include Mahashivratri on February 15 and Eid-Ul-Fitr on March 21, both of which have already passed, along with Independence Day on August 15 and Diwali Laxmi Pujan on November 8. Diwali Laxmi Pujan will fall on a Sunday this year, though exchanges will conduct the customary Muhurat Trading session on November 8. The timings for the special one-hour session will be announced closer to the date. Independence Day, meanwhile, falls on a Saturday.